Tag: politics

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Bangladesh today: The return of Rip Van Winkle

The American author William Irving created a famous fictional character called Rip Van Winkle who drinks a magic potion and wakes up decades later to find that his personal world and the world around him have changed greatly. Winkle observes both positive and negative changes.

Imagine that the magical properties of Rip Van Winkle are embodied in an 18-year-old Rahim. He is a staunch Bengali nationalist. Rahim is a witness to epochal events: the Bangladesh War of Liberation that started on 26 March 1971 and ended on 16 December 1971; the emergence of Bangladesh as a new nation; the devastating famine in 1974 in which more than a million people perished; a highly contentious political experiment of a one party state that lasted between January and August 1975; the gruesome assassination of Sheikh Mujib and most members of his family in mid-August 1975, the founding father of the nation and its first elected Prime Minister; the trauma and turmoil that followed.

In a state of despair and desperation that his expectations of a peaceful and prosperous Sonar Bangla (Golden Bengal) were dashed, Rahim drinks a magic potion and falls into a long and deep slumber. He wakes up in contemporary Bangladesh. He is now an old man well past 70. What does he see? What will he say?

As a staunch Bengali nationalist, he would certainly be elated at the economic progress that has taken place. The average Bangladeshi today can expect to live around 75 years. It is difficult to imagine that life expectancy in Bangladesh in 1971 plummeted to 27 years (!) during the War of Liberation before recovering to 49 years in 1972 – see Figure 1.

Source: Derived by author from World Bank, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.LE00.IN?locations=BD

Rahim would also note that such statistics is a powerful vindication of the view that huge losses of life and displacement of people took place during the War of Liberation and one that was primarily caused by genocidal acts of the Pakistan army and its local collaborators. He would lament the fact that those who committed such war crimes were not held accountable for such gruesome acts. The Pakistani soldiers and army officers who occupied Bangladesh as perpetrators of violence against innocent civilians between March and December 1971 were given a safe return to Pakistan (thanks to the magnanimous gesture of the Indian government of the time). Some local collaborators were tried, found guilty and given the death penalty, but most escaped any form of accountability. Rahim must wonder: when will this culture of immunity end?

If one uses another basic metric of living standards, per capita real GDP, Rahim would simply be stunned at the scale of the progress that has taken place. Between 1969 and 1972 per capita real GDP contracted by 19 per cent. Today, per capita GDP is 5.2 times the level that prevailed in 1972 – see Figure 2. Furthermore, as a recent World Bank assessment (October 2025) notes:[2]

Source: Derived by authors from World Bank, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.KD?locations=BD

Between 2010 and 2022, real GDP grew by 6.6 percent annually, nearly doubling GDP per capita and reducing poverty at the extreme national poverty line (lower) from 12.2 to 5.6 percent and at the absolute national poverty line (upper) from 37.1 to 18.7 percent. Multidimensional poverty also declined from 46.8 to 21.3 percent, alongside improvements in health, education, sanitation, and electricity access.

Rahim can barely reconcile these numbers with the Bangladesh that he witnessed in 1971-72 and during the famine of 1974. Poverty was endemic. He would heartily endorse the view that “Bangladesh has lot to be proud of”.[3] He can say that he comes from an era in which Bangladesh was denigrated as a “basket case” and there was extraordinarily little to be proud of. This, he would proclaim with a deep sense of satisfaction, is a vindication of all the optimists – most notably Mujib and his generation of nationalist politicians and fellow travellers – who fervently believed in the idea of Bangladesh long before it became a reality. Indeed, he would go even further and say that Bangladesh would, today, be worse off had it remained as a province of Pakistan. In core areas of well-being, Bangladesh as an independent nation has outperformed Pakistan. For example, life expectancy in Bangladesh is about ten years more than Pakistan, while its literacy rate is twenty percentage points higher than Pakistan’s.[4]

Yet, like Rip Van Winkle, Rahim must highlight adverse changes. To start with, he would find the capital city Dhaka clogged with traffic and bursting at the seams with high rise apartments and buildings. The air quality in Dhaka is among the worst in the world.[5] He is alarmed at a report that about 30 percent of the population face heightened climate risk. The Dhaka that he left in the 1970s was much poorer but quieter and cleaner. Global warming and its deleterious consequences were not part of the policy agenda.

Rahim would be aghast at the grotesque levels of inequality and the endemic corruption that pervades everyday life. One study, based on a ‘corruption perception index’ (CPI), finds that “the global average score out of 100 (which is best) is 42, while Bangladesh’s score is 24—which is 18 points lower than the global average score and 21 points lower than the Asia Pacific region’s average score of 45”.[6] Furthermore, the same study finds that Bangladesh’s ranking since 2023 has not changed, despite major political transitions.

Despite notable socio-economic progress, Rahim would note that new challenges have emerged. The latest reports suggest that in the post-2022 period, both overall and extreme poverty have increased in Bangladesh.[7] Growth has slowed down, while the global political and economic climate, following the war on Iran, has worsened. Bangladesh, like many countries in the world, faces a fuel crisis which is being driven by external factors.

It is on the political front that Rahim has the most concerns. He was shocked to realize that Sheikh Hasina, who was reportedly a timorous, soft-spoken housewife, turned out to be a ruthless politician who became the longest serving female Prime Minister in the country’s history. At the same time, her attempt to hold on to political power by force made her vulnerable. She was ousted in a violent uprising in August 2024 and was forced into exile.  There is a judicial ruling against her that entails the death sentence for committing crimes against humanity. Rahim would be deeply saddened to note how Hasina, in a bid to deify her father’s memory, ended up destroying his legacy. The Awami league that Rahim knew is now in the political wilderness from which it might never return.

Rahim is left wondering how the new Bangladesh will evolve. The key power brokers, now led by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), as well as the official Opposition, led by Jamaat, represent a constellation of forces that are keen to construct a durable historical narrative that will be inhospitable to the values and principles that animated a generation who fought selflessly for the idea of Bangladeshi nationhood. In that fundamental sense, Rahim wonders whether Bangladesh has really progressed beyond the 1970s. A political culture of immunity, violence and vendetta that were so evident in the mid-seventies remain ever-present dangers.

[1] https://www.britannica.com/topic/Rip-Van-Winkle-short-story-by-Irving

[2] https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099408104212512419/pdf/IDU-c56b9657-74d2-45ab-ba59-3dd8d12ff803.pdf

[3] https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/opinion/2023/03/01/defying-the-odds-bangladesh-s-journey-of-transformation-and-resilience

[4] https://www.worlddata.info/country-comparison.php?country1=BGD&country2=PAK

[5] https://www.dhakatribune.com/bangladesh/dhaka/409294/dhaka-air-quality-slips-to-4th-worst-globally

[6] https://www.ti-bangladesh.org/en/cpi

[7] https://www.thedailystar.net/business/news/poverty-rate-jumps-279-extreme-poverty-nearly-doubles-93-3970246

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Viral Empire: How Microbes Reflect Human Power Structures

Source: https://grahamhancock.com/wattsp1/

Viral Empire: How Microbes Reflect Human Power Structures

By Aunul Islam, PhD (Imperial College, UK)

Modern power no longer operates primarily through borders or armies but through networks—supply chains, information flows, technology, and interdependence. In this sense, contemporary geopolitics resembles microbial systems more than traditional empires.

Microbes exert influence through connectivity, adaptation, and asymmetry. Small organisms can destabilise large systems by exploiting vulnerabilities, just as minor interventions can trigger outsized effects in a networked world. Power depends less on scale than on speed, positioning, and resilience.

Like microbes, political systems evolve under pressure. Expansion produces resistance, cooperation strengthens survival, and rigid structures fail in volatile environments. The greatest risk is not defeat by rivals but internal systemic collapse.

Seen this way, global power functions as a living ecosystem—adaptive, fragile, and continuously contested rather than permanently controlled.

In the above narration, the scientific expressions like mutation, virulence in the microbes behaviour have been translated in the business and strategic literature to relate them to humans. But this literature lacks sufficient emphasis on the destruction through wars and conflicts by humans on core aspects of their own life. This entails destruction of properties and other supporting elements such as hospitals, energy production etc.

At this juncture, the anti-thesis to above narratives is that human empire or a Supreme Empire do not adhere to the simple modalities in present day geopolitics. The present empire dictated by a lone country (USA) along with its lackeys is no longer a traditional empire as depicted previously. The viral empire like that of the bubonic plague or even the Covid-19 virus are now long forgotten past. The present Super Empire is best described as the worst of its kind, genocidal in nature and any other terms that can be used to describe it, where new words have to be added to the dictionary.

The last hope of the present world order is that the super empire does behave like a viral empire and succumbs to its own systemic collapse. Maybe this will happen in the next few decades!

Sent from my iPhone

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Notes on Iran: regime collapse or survival?

Source: https://www.afr.com/world/middle-east/in-pictures-iran-war-s-global-impact-20260302-p5o6ol

There are several reasons why one can be optimistic about the survival of the current regime in Iran following the illegal and unprovoked war on the nation waged by the USA and Israel. First, the regime managed to overcome its most dangerous and fragile moment, that is, immediately after the assassination by Israeli bombs of Khamenei, his family members and his entourage of senior leaders. At 86, and after having ruled Iran for 40 years with an iron fist, Khamenei decided to become a martyr. Hence, he was at his office – a publicly disclosed location – when he was killed. This was both a spiritual and strategic move. Martyrdom plays a vital role among the Shia faithful. The decision to die in this manner was strategic because it signalled to the Iranian population that a succession plan was in place in line with constitutional provisions. Iran is a constitutional republic that has endured for 50 years. It is not a lawless theocracy dependent on the whims of an aging Ayatollah.

Second, and this follows from the first, Trump and Netanyahu failed to understand the multi-layered structure of the Iranian regime. They thought with Khamenei and his senior entourage gone, the regime would collapse and the thankful Iranians would dance with joy in the streets and enthusiastically engage with a new pro-American and pro-Israeli political settlement. Both Trump and Netanyahu would declare victory and go home. This did not happen. Instead, the regime maintained its constitutional continuity. The bombing continues, hundreds have been killed so far (550 at last count). It is difficult at this stage for the average Iranian to treat the Americans and Israelis as liberators when they are being killed and maimed by made in USA bombs and missiles.

Third, Iran has shown that it can retaliate against the combined military might of USA and Israel by using a most potent weapon of modern warfare – long-range (but not intercontinental) ballistic missiles that draw on North Korean, Russian and Chinese expertise. According to some estimates, Iran possesses more than 3,000 of them. Admittedly, both USA and Israel have so-called interceptors, that is, defensive technology that can intercept incoming missiles. But, as Israel is finding to its cost, such a technology is not fool-proof. Most importantly, the very sophistication of this technology is also its Achilles Heel. It is extremely expensive to operate, stocks are limited and has high turnaround times to replenish. It has been suggested that neither the USA nor Israel has the capacity to sustain full-scale use of the interceptors beyond a few weeks before critical shortages emerge.

Fourth, Iran has fully adopted the tools of asymmetric warfare which weaker parties deploy against formidable adversaries. Unlike the last war (June 2025), when it was attacked by Israel, Iran decided from the very beginning that there are no ‘red lines.’ Hence, it is hitting the Arab allies of USA in the Gulf monarchies and causing them considerable grief and consternation. This is being done by inflicting damage on US bases hosted by the Gulf states, targeting sensitive civilian assets entailing airports, ports, luxury hotels and energy infrastructure. The result is mayhem. The famous airlines of the Middle East – Emirates, Etihad and Qatar – are all grounded. ‘Hundreds of thousands of travellers’ are caught in limbo. The carefully curated images of Bahrain, Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Doha as safe playgrounds for affluent, hedonistic hustlers have been severely damaged. Most importantly, energy prices are projected to rise sharply, partly because countries such as Qatar have temporarily stopped LNG production. Iran has also choked off traffic in the Straits of Hormuz to a trickle. This is highly significant because Hormuz hosts oil tankers that supply 20-30% of the world’s oil.

The attack on the Arab allies of USA might appear that an Iranian regime is lashing out against its neighbours in desperation, but the strategic rationale is different. By attacking the Gulf states in such a brazen way, Iran is sending a clear message: US protection of its Arab allies means extraordinarily little when push comes to shove. This is a move by the Iranians that was not part of the strategic calculus of USA and its allies.

Fourth, it is by no means clear that Trump has the appetite for a long war which is deeply unpopular among Americans (75% oppose the war on Iran, according to some polls). He has brazenly broken his election pledge that there will be no more ‘wars of choice.’ Trump’s approval rating is low. His MAGA base is becoming restless, caught in the grip of a cost-of-living crisis that is likely to worsen with the projected increase in energy prices. Mid-term elections are approaching and Trump has little to show as accomplishments other than vacuous showmanship. American military personnel are paying for Trump’s war of choice with their lives – six dead so far with many more injuries. The pain threshold for the average American is low when such needless deaths occur.

In sum, ‘victory’ for Iran means regime survival even when facing formidable foes. If Iran can pull it off, it will be seen as the mythical David prevailing over Goliath. Of course, the costs will be extremely high in terms of death and destruction and adverse economic consequences that will linger for years, but the Iranian leadership could say that it did not choose this suicidal path. It was forced to defend the nation against implacable and powerful enemies.

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The US military aggression in Venezuela and the abduction of Maduro: global reactions and Western ambivalence

On January 3, 2026, US President Trump announced via his social media account that a special operation ‘captured’ ( a euphemism for abducted) President Maduro of Venezuela and his wife and flew them over to the United States to face criminal charges for engaging in ‘narco-terrorism conspiracy, cocaine importation conspiracy, possession of machine guns and destructive devices and conspiracy to possess machine guns and destructive devices against the US’. The opening hearing took place on 5th January at a US Federal Court, with both Maduro and his wife defiantly claiming that they were kidnapped and not guilty, and that he remains the President of Venezuela. One can foresee a protracted legal battle ahead.

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/03/world/americas/maduro-photo-trump.html

Trump was candid about his real intentions. The US administration would ‘run’ Venezuela until a viable and peaceful transfer of power to local authorities took place. Venezuela, which possesses the world’s largest oil reserves, would become, proclaimed Trump, the beneficiary of US technical and engineering prowess as leading energy companies embark on fixing the country’s dilapidated oil infrastructure. Wishful thinking? Probably.

Note that Trump left the Maduro regime intact, with the Vice President now constitutionally mandated to become acting President in the absence of Maduro. Trump also dismissed the possibility of the Nobel Prize-winning Machado leading the transition process, while failing to mention González, the Presidential candidate. This begs the question. What transition?

How has the global community reacted to these stunning developments? One does not need to be a legal expert to realize that the US military aggression in Venezuela that led to the abduction of Maduro and his wife is a brazen violation of international law and the UN charter. It also left at least 40 Venezuelans dead, including significant damage to private property and infrastructure. Yet, European leaders – supposedly the champions of international law and a rules-based global order have, once again, generally failed to acknowledge that in an unambiguous fashion. They are petrified to upset Trump and sought refuge in mealy-mouthed statements and carefully crafted obfuscation. Here are some notable examples, starting with the UK, which claims to enjoy a ‘special relationship’ with the USA.

Prime Minister Keir Starmer said the UK will discuss the “evolving situation” in Venezuela with U.S. counterparts while noting Britain will “shed no tears” about the demise of Maduro’s “regime”. This interview with Starmer from the British TV channel ITV is riveting to watch.

The EU expressed concern at the developments and urged respect for international law, even as it noted that Maduro “lacks legitimacy.”

French President Emmanuel Macron called for 2004 presidential candidate Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia to lead a political transition. On the other hand, France said the U.S. operation undermined international law, and no solution to Venezuela’s crisis can be imposed externally.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said that Maduro had “led his country to ruin,” but called the U.S. action legally “complex.”

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni was the only major European leader to side with the U.S., arguing its military action in Venezuela was “legitimate” and “defensive.”

What about Canada? Well…

Prime Minister Mark Carney said on X that, “Canada has not recognized Maduro’s illegitimate regime since the 2018 electoral fraud. The Canadian government welcomes the opportunity now available to the Venezuelan people to access freedom, democracy, peace, and prosperity.”

He added, “True to its longstanding commitment to the rule of law, sovereignty, and human rights, Canada calls on all parties to respect international law. We support the sovereign right of the Venezuelan people to decide and build their own future in a peaceful and democratic society.”

And Australia?

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has responded to the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro by US forces. “The Australian government is monitoring the situation and will provide assistance to any Australians in Venezuela,” Mr Albanese said. “We urge all parties to support dialogue and diplomacy to secure regional stability and prevent escalation. “We continue to support international law.”

These mild and conditional utterances by Western leaders on what is clearly a breach of international law contrast sharply with what China and Russia had to say.

China delivered a strongly worded message to the United States on Monday (5th January) at an “emergency” meeting of the UN Security Council, calling on Washington to abide by international law, end its illusion that it is the world’s police force and court, and immediately release Nicolas Maduro and his wife.

Russia’s United Nations ambassador Vasily Nebenzya denounced US actions in Venezuela and urged the immediate release of detained Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro during a United Nations Security Council session in New York on Monday, January 5.

India, on the other hand, appeared to adopt the Western strategy of obfuscation. Thus:

India broke its silence on the US capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro with a carefully worded statement that expressed “deep concern” but conspicuously avoided naming Washington or condemning the military strikes that seized the Latin American leader.

What about Venezuela’s regional neighbours? As expected, regional divisions emerged and reflected the ideological proclivities of different countries.

Argentine President Javier Milei, Trump’s ideological soulmate, characterized (the USA) as supporting “democracy, the defense of life, freedom, and property.”

“On the other side,” …are those accomplices of a narco-terrorist and bloody dictatorship that has been a cancer for our region.”

Other right-wing leaders in South America similarly seized on Maduro’s ouster to declare their ideological affinity with Trump.

In Ecuador, conservative President Daniel Noboa issued a stern warning for all followers of Hugo Chávez, Maduro’s mentor and the founder of the Bolivarian revolution: “Your structure will completely collapse across the entire continent.”

In Chile, where a presidential election last month marked by fears over Venezuelan immigration brought down the leftist government, far-right President-elect José Antonio Kast hailed the U.S. raid as “great news for the region.”

Left-wing presidents in Latin America — including Brazil’s Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Mexico’s Claudia Sheinbaum, Chile’s Gabriel Boric, and Colombia’s Gustavo Petro — expressed grave concerns over what they saw as U.S. bullying.

Lula said the raid set “an extremely dangerous precedent.” Sheinbaum warned it “jeopardizes regional stability.” Boric said it “violated an essential pillar of international law.” Petro called it “aggression against the sovereignty of Venezuela and of Latin America.”

In sum, global reaction to Maduro’s abduction by the US has been quite diverse, but one is struck by the muted response of Europe and other leaders from the West. They will face a stern test if Trump follows through on his threat to invade Greenland and forcibly take it away from Denmark. Certainly, the Danish intelligence service, traditionally a close American ally within the framework of NATO, is so worried that it has officially designated the United States as a ‘security risk’.  

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Mamdani wears the ‘bad Muslim’ badge as a badge of honour and scores a famous electoral victory

Zohran Mamdani prevailed over Andrew Cuomo in the mayoral election of New York City (NYC) held on November 4. Cuomo, a former governor of New York state and, more importantly, a scion of the Democratic Party establishment, was easily beaten by someone who was virtually unknown a year ago. A third Republican candidate, Curtis Sliwa, became a rather distant third.

Young, energetic, and infused with a great deal of personal charm and charisma, Mamdani demonstrated an exceptionally high degree of oratorical skills.  He has an uncanny ability to connect with a diverse constituency.

Mandani’s election victory is as improbable as it is memorable. He is indeed destined for the history books. At 34, he is the youngest NYC mayor in over a century and the first one since 1969 to get over a million votes. Cuomo, despite being disgraced by allegations of multiple instances of sexual misconduct, decided to run for the mayoral election as a Democratic nominee, only to find that it was the unknown Mamdani who ousted him in the primaries. Cuomo, driven by pure ambition and a sense of entitlement, decided to run as an independent only to be defeated, yet again, by a seemingly upstart politician.

Mamdani is also the first-ever Muslim mayor of the largest city in the United States. He was born in Uganda to parents with Indian heritage. His mother, Mira Nair, is a globally well-known filmmaker. His father, Mahmood Mamdani, is a distinguished political scientist and anthropologist who teaches at Columbia University in his capacity as a Professorial Chair.

Mira Nair

Mahmood Mamdani

Mamdani used his religious identity like a badge of honour that reflects both his political acumen and a deep commitment to fighting Islamophobia that has become rampant in US and Western political discourse. In doing so, Zohran Mamdani seems to have been inspired by one of his father’s provocative scholarly contributions, where the author makes a distinction between ‘bad’ Muslims and ‘good Muslims’.

‘Bad Muslims’ are seen as inherently anti-American and antisemitic. They are both despised and feared as ‘Jihadists’ who reject Western hegemony. They are prepared to fight an interminable war, through acts of terrorism, against both Israel and its Western allies. ‘Good Muslims’, on the other hand, are supposed to be secular and westernised and fully prepared to accept Western hegemony. They lead quiescent lives as law-abiding citizens in both the Western and Muslim worlds. They seek to remain, as Zohran Mamdani put it, ‘in the shadows.’

In the official ‘war on terror’ that was launched by the Bush administration in the wake of 9/11, the underlying premise is that good Muslims need to be separated from bad Muslims through a combination of coercion and co-option. This is how anti-Americanism and antisemitism can be durably defanged. Hence, the rise of ‘Homeland Security’ (with a current budget of US$411 billion +) and a high surveillance society primarily targeting Muslims in the US-led West. Islamophobia became the norm rather than the exception.

Zohran Mamdani is certainly secular and ‘Westernised’ in the sense that he was largely educated in the United States. Still, he is prepared to step out of ‘the shadows’ by embracing the anti-establishment ethos of the ‘bad Muslim’. He openly supports the Palestinian cause and decries the genocide committed in Gaza by Israel. He uses this narrative to reinforce his ‘Democratic Socialist’ credentials where he seeks to improve the living conditions of ordinary New Yorkers through concrete measures, such as affordable rental accommodation, free public transport and universal childcare financed by modestly increased taxation of the top 1 percent of affluent New Yorkers and raising the corporate tax rate to match the rate prevailing in the neighbouring state of New Jersey.

Timorous centrist politicians in the Democratic Party must have regarded Zohran Mamdani as a misguided novice who faced certain political oblivion in a city that had the largest number of Jews outside Israel and the largest number of billionaires (more than 120) in the world in a single city. They would have chortled with derision. How could he spout anti-Israeli rhetoric, seek to tax the rich, and demonstrate his Muslim credentials?

It seems that Zohran Mamdani had the last laugh against his detractors. He read the mood of the electorate much better than his Democratic fellow travellers. More than 30 per cent of Jewish New Yorkers voted for Mamdani – no mean feat for someone painted as a Jew-hating politician. As he observed in his victory speech:

“I am Muslim. I am a democratic socialist. And most damning of all, I refuse to apologise for any of this.”

Of course, Zohran Mamdani has a long journey ahead. His powerful political opponents, including President Trump, will not quietly accept the electoral verdict. After all, multiple billionaires poured more than US$40 million into Andrew Cuomo’s campaign coffers. The pro-Israeli lobby will not wither away. Anti-Mamdani forces will be relentless in discrediting and vilifying a politician who is both a ‘socialist’ and a ‘bad Muslim’. Will they prevail? Only time will tell.