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Hasina and beyond: Bangladesh at a critical juncture

Sheikh Hasina, the longest serving Prime Minister of Bangladesh, and the longest serving female Prime Minister in the world, could not defy the ‘iron law’ of history. Iron law? Yes, all political regimes have a finite time-span.

Hasina ruled Bangladesh with an iron fist. Her security forces – enabled by a pliant judiciary and media – engaged in brutal repression of opposition politicians (Bangladesh National Party and Jamaat in particular) and suppressed any significant attempt at dissent by civic activists, students, and others. Over a period of 15 years (2009-2024), the 76 years old veteran politician built a ‘deep state’ teeming with party loyalists (that is, those affiliated with the Awami League: AL). Her governance structure appeared to be a seemingly impregnable fortress that sustained Hasina’s hold on the body politic. A succession of brazenly rigged elections ensured that she would return to power again and again. Yet, a short-lived movement led by students toppled this fortress like a sandcastle on August 5, 2024. The armed forces on which Hasina relied for her ability to cling to power refused to offer their unconditional allegiance in the face of an unrelenting student movement. Hasina fled in disgrace to neighbouring India which offered her sanctuary, at least temporarily.

Initially, the protest movement targeted a contentious job reservation scheme in the public sector. This scheme disproportionately favoured the descendants of those who fought in the 1971 Bangladesh Liberation War. Such a scheme was in essence a pernicious means to induct loyalists into the bureaucracy.

Tragically, the youth-led uprising against the Hasina regime led to many hundreds of deaths of innocent students and civilians at the hands of security forces and government-supported vigilantes. Thousands were injured and many thousands were incarcerated. Students stood firm against such repression and successfully sought Hasina’s resignation once the army abandoned its support to the government.

In retrospect, the Hasina regime represents a cruel paradox. Political repression was juxtaposed with substantial economic and social gains. Growth was sustained and rapid leading to a doubling of real per capita income between 2009 and 2023 – see Figure 1. Poverty fell significantly, and life expectancy increased substantially – see Figures 2 and 3. A UN assessment noted that ‘the country is internationally recognized for its good progress on several gender indicators’. The garments industry and remittances consolidated their position as leading export earners. New industries emerged, most notably pharmaceuticals and shipbuilding. Large-scale infrastructure projects were completed that enhanced communications and connectivity.

Source: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=BD
 

Source: https://pip.worldbank.org/country-profiles/BGD

Source: https://data.worldbank.org/country/bangladesh

On the other hand, such achievements were nullified by massive corruption, egregious levels of inequality, and environmental degradation. The fundamental failure of the Hasina regime is that it dented the legitimacy of durable economic and social gains by denying Bangladeshis basic rights and liberties, including the right to vote in free and fair elections.

Hasina was also seen as being beholden to India. This caused public resentment at India’s influence on Bangladesh’s national affairs. Her attempt at a balancing act by wooing China was insufficient to dispel the widely held notion that she was slavishly pro-Indian.

Now that Hasina is gone, what next? An interim government, consisting of seventeen members and headed by Nobel Laureate Mohammad Yunus, has been established. It has taken the historically unprecedented step of appointing two student leaders as part of the government with full ministerial rank.

It seems that an implicit rift has developed between the Army brass, the student leaders and professional politicians represented by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and Jamaat. The Army Chief and his enablers wanted to form an interim government that that did not include Yunus. The student leaders did not approve of such a move and offered their alternative configuration of an interim government headed by Yunus and one that is politically neutral.  They envisage an interim government that will run for a substantial period to complete its tasks and then ensure the holding of free and fair elections. So far, neither the tenure of the interim government nor its terms reference have been made explicit.

For now, the student leaders have prevailed because they have enormous street power, but they – and the interim government that they helped create – face monumental challenges: restoring law and order, reforming the governance structure, restarting an economy that effectively became moribund during the massive disruptions caused by the student-led movement and holding free and fair elections. These challenges are occurring against a background of high expectations about a bright future.

The BNP-Jamaat alliance meanwhile is getting impatient. More importantly, they would like the interim government to hold elections within three months – a time-frame that is unlikely to be accepted by the student leaders. The silent rift among the key actors will then become explicit.

One can understand why the BNP-Jamaat is so impatient. They have an electoral opportunity that they did not believe would ever occur. Their arch nemesis AL is thoroughly vanquished, at least for now. The BNP-Jamaat forces can romp home electorally. What will the student leaders do then?

There is growing realization that the real battle for the future of a new, inclusive Bangladesh has just started. The progressive forces unleashed by the youth-led uprising need to evolve into a new party that can prevail electorally over the old guard represented by professional politicians.

The two dominant parties (BNP and AL), backed by minor allies, have in the past accounted for more than 80 percent of votes cast in relatively free and fair elections (such as 2001). Sadly, they harbour a ‘legacy of blood’ that has tainted Bangladesh ever since its birth in 1971. The two parties treat each other as mortal enemies and display a deeply ingrained culture of revenge politics. This inhibits a robust and sustained commitment to peaceful transfer of power.  Professional politicians, regardless of their affiliations, come from a toxic gene pool representing a mix of ideologues, opportunists, crooks and criminals. Whether a genuinely third political force can emerge from the youth-led movement remains an open question.

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From hubris to humiliation: which way now for Modi?

Source: https://www.facebook.com/narendramodi/photos/?_rdr

Narendra Modi, poised to become Prime Minister of India after the conclusion of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, is probably the most successful politician of contemporary India. He strode like a colossus, first as Chief Minister of Gujarat (13 years), and subsequently as Prime Minister of India (10 years). This is a record that is unlikely to be broken. He would love to surpass the late Jawaharlal Nehru’s distinction as India’s longest-serving Prime Minister, but will he?

There is an eternal truth in politics. Successful politicians typically get consumed by hubris which paves the way for their inevitable downfall. In Modi’s case, hubris has been compounded by notorious communal proclivities as well as a strong authoritarian streak. The party that he leads, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), is conspicuous for its Hindutvya ideology that has marginalized and victimized Muslims and other minorities. What Modi has done is add to the Hindutvya ideology a potent mix of expanding welfare payments to the poor and aggressive investment in infrastructure. This has enabled Modi to take the BJP to dizzying heights of electoral victories that gave the party sizeable majorities in 2014 and 2019.

 It is difficult to comprehend that in 1984 the BJP under Advani had only two seats in the Lok Sabha. By 2014, the size of the BJP under Modi swelled to 303 seats.  An overconfident Modi simply ignored its allies as it could rely on its own majority. At the same time, a despondent Opposition which was led by Congress simply capitulated under the BJP electoral juggernaut.

Modi took advantage of these circumstances and held the governing institutions as of India as well as his own party under his arrogant grip. India soon found itself being classified as an ‘electoral autocracy’ ruled by someone who regarded himself as a divine avatar destined to shape the destiny of India.

The 2024 elections disrupted the status quo and humbled Modi. The BJP fell well short of its majority, its worst result since 2009. How will Modi cope now? Is he going to govern the way he did in the past or will he simply fade away and become another ordinary politician who came to power after a ‘Pyrrhic’ victory?

There are several reasons why one might witness the decline of Modi. First, he must contend with the preferences and machinations of capricious allies to run a coalition government. This is the kind of politics that Modi is simply not used to. He might react by asserting his authoritarian persona, but this might make his fragile hold on power even more fragile. Second, he must contend with a rejuvenated Opposition led by Rahul Gandhi and his allies. Third, there is the long-term issue of whether there are diminishing returns to exploiting the poisonous majoritarianism of Hindutvya as an electoral strategy. The fact that the BJP in the 2024 elections has shed seats heavily in the Hindu heartland of Uttar Pradesh is an indication of that trend. It is ironic that the incumbent BJP candidate lost his seat even in Ayodhya where the grand Ram Mandir that was built on the ruins of a mosque stands.

Reinforcing the limits of Hindutvya is the fact that India faces multiple challenges that the BJP has been unable to resolve: crony capitalism, conspicuously high inequality, lack of equitable access to health care and education, lack of good jobs, especially for young people, and the perils of climate change.  As Modi cannot hide from confronting these challenges by posing as a divine entity, ambitious power-seekers within the BJP itself might rise to the fore and force him to move away from his role as a party leader. After all he will soon be 75 years old, and he might be asked to retire in the same way that Advani and other party elders did.

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Israel’s future…

Source: Al Jazeera

Israel started its life as an independent nation by engaging in ethnic cleansing or ‘nakba’ as the Palestinians call it. It was forcefully done, but in the Israeli imagination, it became a choice-driven process. As John Mearsheimer, the redoubtable politician of Jewish heritage noted recently, ‘voluntary’ ethnic cleansing is the only ‘final solution’ – a land for Jews and Jews only, where there is no trace of indigenous Palestinians as they will have all moved to other neighbouring Arab countries. Hence, there is no need to engage in dangerous conversations on a ‘binational ‘ state of Israel-Palestine or two states of Israel and Palestine embodying peaceful co-existence.

The prized goal of voluntary ethnic cleansing has not happened. What has emerged is a dystopian world in which a highly militarized, ethno-nationalist, settler-colonial state brutally subjugates Palestinians while pining for the pipe dream of peaceful ethnic cleansing. The latest genocidal war on Gazans by Israel – admittedly in retaliation against the October 7 attacks by Hamas – is the latest example of this dystopian world that captures the bitter reality of a nation that has forsaken its future for ‘forever wars’ against a weak and largely defenceless enemy that it finds difficult to vanquish. It is Hamas today, but it could morph into another entity tomorrow.

As the Washington Post’s Ishaan Tharoor has emphasized, Israel is facing growing global isolation and is boxed into a corner. The United States continues to be Israel’s cheerleader (what ‘genocide’? there are no ‘red lines’), but several Western allies that meekly followed ‘follow-the-leader’ in the past are quietly eschewing this shameful strategy. Many EU nations, and dependable allies like Australia, have voted in favour of UN resolutions seeking a long-term ceasefire to stop the wanton bloodshed in Gaza. Many of these very countries have voted in favour of a UN resolution to grant Palestine full UN membership. Ireland, Norway and Spain have fully recognized the Palestinian state a few days ago.

The International Criminal Court of Justice (ICJ) has issued multiple injunctions against Israel’s current war on Gazans and might, in the fullness of time, decide that Israel has committed genocide in Gaza. . Most importantly, the International Criminal Court (ICC) is poised to issue arrest warrants against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanhayu and his Defence Minister Yoav Gallant along with three Hamas leaders.This is historically unprecedented. This has happened despite a relentless Israeli-led campaign, spread over a decade, of intimidating the ICC and attempting to tarnish its credibility. Even here, the US-led West has seen its facade of unity waver, with some countries arguing that the independence of the ICC must be upheld to ensure that no country – yes this includes Israel –  is above the law. Here again, the USA has been an embarrassing spectacle, with President Joe Biden sounding shrill and silly in his critique of ICC. The bitter reality is Netanyahu and Gallant may not be able to visit even Germany (officially the most pro-Israeli nation in Europe) as it is a signatory to ICC and hence would be obliged to enforce ICC-led arrest warrants.

In sum, Israel’s future is bleak if it continues in its current quest to subjugate the Palestinians. B’Tselem, a leading Israeli human rights organisation, laments “Israel’s rapid decline into a moral abyss”.

Israeli writer Yoana Gonen mourns the tragic transformation of his country.

“Toddlers go up in flames, and our Israeli public celebrates…that’s what our hell looks like…Israel has such a strong desire for revenge that it is slowly sinking into a dark abyss, hand in hand with the ruins of Gaza”.

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The isolation of USA and Israel on the global stage: a UNSC perspective

Multiple attempts have been made by the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) to end Israel’s war on Gazans by bringing about a ceasefire. The UNSC has five permanent members: China, France, Russian Federation, the United Kingdom, and the United States, and ten non-permanent members elected for two-year terms by the General Assembly – see here. These 10 non-permanent members are:

The UAE drafted a resolution following the invocation of the rarely used Article 99 by the United Nations Secretary General (UNSG). The resolution entailed the demand for an immediate and unconditional ceasefire in Gaza along with unconditional release of all hostages held by Hamas. The resolution also:

…” reiterated its demand that all parties comply with their obligations under international law, including international humanitarian law, notably regarding the protection of civilians.  Further, it… requested the Secretary-General to report to the Council on an urgent and continuing basis on the state of implementation of the present resolution”.

97 UN member states endorsed the draft resolution within 24 hours of its dissemination. When it was put to the vote on 8 December 2023, 13 member states, including three permanent members with veto powers (China, France, Russian Federation) voted in its favour. The US decided to exercise its veto power to block the resolution with the UK abstaining from it. Robert Woods, representing the USA, really cut a lonely figure – see video here.

The veto power exercised by the USA at the latest UNSC deliberations demonstrates yet again that it is prepared to endure utter humiliation and isolation in the global stage to protect Israel and its vicious war on Gazans. The scale of death and destruction is so horrifying that it has unleashed an unrelenting movement of pro-Palestinian protests across the world. Here is an example from London.

The US administration keeps professing that it cares deeply about the loss of civilian lives and has been cajoling Israel to do its best to protect civilian lives as it continues its brutal military campaign on Gazans in response to the October 7 attack by Hamas. Sadly, actions speak louder than words as the veto power exercised by the USA has shown. This has been compounded by the commitment by the USA to aid and abet Israel through copious supply of arms and ammunition. In any case, the USA has always been a major bilateral donor to Israel (especially after 1970), even though the latter is now one of the richest countries in the world – see graph below. US military assistance accounts for 15 percent of Israel’s military budget.

If the USA was serious about protecting civilian lives by stopping the carnage in Gaza, it could have easily done so by withdrawing its military support to Israel. Instead, it is prepared to accept global opprobrium and accept the price that Israel is essentially a pariah state, especially in the Global South. The USA is prepared to accept that some of its European allies would go against is position, such as France (which the voted in favour of the UAE resolution), Malta and Switzerland (both which the voted in favour of the UAE resolution). There are media reports that France, Spain, Belgium, and Malta want an imminent EU summit to call for a lasting ceasefire. Even Japan – which is such a steadfast ally of USA – decided to vote in favour of the UAE resolution.

Why is the USA, and the Biden administration in particular, prepared to tarnish its global reputation as well as it national interests to protect an apartheid state like Israel? This is where the thesis that the ‘Israel lobby’ in the USA wields inordinate influence on the US political process becomes relevant. This lobby has used such influence on the USA body politic to skew American foreign policy in the Middle east in an unabashedly pro-Israeli direction, especially after 1967. Two leading American political scientists – Mearsheimer and Walt – proposed an evidence-based elaboration of this thesis in 2006 in a working paper which they subsequently expanded into a book. Their thesis has withstood the test of time and is especially relevant today. Unless the influence of the Israel lobby in the USA can be sharply restrained by countervailing forces, the tragedy of Gaza and of Palestinians at large will continue unabated and the UNSC will continue to be reduced to a hapless bystander by veto-wielding nations.

[The views expressed in this piece are strictly personal and do not represent the views of any institution that the author is associated with, either past or present]

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The Israeli economy after the Hamas attacks of 7 October 2023: is a crisis brewing?

Source: Times of Israel, 30 October 2023

The horrific Hamas attacks on 7 October 2023 in Southern Israel led to the killing and maiming of thousands, primarily civilians.  This in turn has unleashed Israel’s brutal war on Gazans. While one is preoccupied with the death and destruction in Gaza that are beamed live on TV, especially by Al Jazeera, disappointing news within Israel on the economic front is building up. Here is this vivid commentary by one analyst.

“Businesses are operating with skeletal staff, if at all. Major Israeli employers have announced furloughs. Traffic is light because so few people are commuting to work. Non-essential services are being cut or reduced, from recycling to library hours. Schools that had been shuttered since before the war are starting to reopen, but on reduced schedules because they can’t have more students than can fit into their bomb shelters. Universities are closed until December — at least.

With shipping traffic to Israel disrupted and international flights sharply reduced, Israelis are experiencing shortages. Some local food manufacturers can’t staff their factories or pick the produce in their fields because they depend on Palestinian day laborers who are now barred entry into Israel or Thai farmworkers who left after at least 24 of their compatriots were killed in Hamas’ attack. The first week of the war, supermarkets ran out of tomatoes and cucumbers. Last week it was eggs.

Tourists have disappeared, entertainment venues, and many restaurants remain closed, and shuttered museums are moving important holdings to safe places.

Israel’s hotels are bursting at the seams, however, filled with many of the 200,000 or so Israelis who have been evacuated from their homes near the front lines. This already small country, roughly the size of New Jersey, feels even smaller with areas near Gaza and Israel’s northern border now closed military zones. Every day the authorities announce more evacuations.”

In terms of the aggregate economic metrics, the current situation appears grim. The shekel has hit a 14-year low; the stock market is down by 10 percent. International credit rating agencies are making ominous declarations of a downgrading of Israel’s sovereign credit rating.

A former head of the research department of the Central bank expects the third quarter GDP growth to decline by as much as 15 percent from a projected growth rate of 3 percent for the same period. Of course, in the past, the economy has rebounded quite quickly – as in the case of the 2006 and 2014 wars with Lebanon and Gaza respectively – but a lot depends on how long the current conflict is likely to last and whether it will spread across the region.

More recently (30 October 2023), 300 top economists stressed Israel is facing an ‘economic crisis’. They called on (Prime Minister) Netanyahu and (Finance Minister) Smotrich to act in a different way.

“You do not understand the magnitude of the … crisis that Israel’s economy is facing, you must act in a different way,” the letter says. “The severe blow that has befallen the State of Israel requires a fundamental change in the order of national priorities and a massive diversion of budgets in favour of dealing with war damage, aid to victims, and rehabilitation of the economy. In our estimation, expected expenditure following the war will amount to tens of billions shekels.”

This proclamation is likely to militate against the negotiated transfer of so-called ‘coalition funds’ –worth tens of billions of shekels – to support controversial and idiosyncratic projects of the Ultra-orthodox (Haredi) community. This community has potent political clout. Haredi Jews in Israel currently account for 13.6 percent of the population and, given their very high birth rates, projected to become 16 percent by 2030. What is germane to note is that Ultra-orthodox Jews have very low employment rates. Not surprisingly, this worries economists and financial analysts. Thus,

“the Finance Ministry’s Budgets Department head Yogev Gardos warned that the allocation of funds to ultra-Orthodox institutions and initiatives creates negative incentives for Haredi men to seek employment and will harm the labour market and the economy as a whole.”

Here are some grim projections made by the Finance Ministry’s Budgets Department head.

“Even before the implementation of the government’s decision and its expected negative effects on the economy, with no change in the employment rate among ultra-Orthodox men, the loss of cumulative GDP until the year 2060 is expected to be NIS 6.7 trillion,”

… if more Haredi men are not encouraged to work, by 2065 the government will have to increase direct taxes by 16 percent to maintain the same level of services that it provides without increasing the deficit.”

Hence, it is plausible to argue that the tension between the need to maintain the support of an important political constituency and the current budgetary and financial realities unleashed by the war is likely to increase. Whether the current government can resolve this tension remains to be seen. The longer the war continues, and the more it escalates across the region, the greater the adverse economic consequences. It seems that an immediate cease fire is an economically rational strategy.