Who benefits from One Nation?

With the declaration of all of the 93 seats in  Queensland’s recent election, the sensation over One Nation Party is over. At least, for now. The question now is not why One Nation failed to live up to its expectations; instead, the question is why the LNP was unable to get a majority. While political pundits and party strategists will, no doubt, offer many reasons, one thing is clear. While premier Palasczuk distanced herself from One Nation and ruled out any alliance with it, the LNP leader Tim Nicholls kept the door open. Did it help the LNP? Did it improve the LNP’s chances of winning the election?

From Labor’s campaign strategy and Palasczuk’s unequivocal position on One Nation, Labor supporters clearly knew a vote for One Nation was not a vote for Labor. It may have been not so clear for the LNP supporters. The conservative voters who traditionally remain faithful to the LNP may have found a more conservative party in One Nation to hand over their precious ballots.  Moreover, mandatory preferential voting did not necessarily deliver the primary votes of One Nation to the LNP candidates.  In the end, both the LNP and One Nation lost while the ALP snatched a decisive victory.

So did the rise of One Nation really benefit the LNP?  ABC’s election analyst Antony Green could not be more precise.  In a  radio interview  with Steve Austin, Green said, “Whenever One Nation is in the field and polling well, the Coalition loses.”   Thus, the rise of One Nation is not a threat to the ALP or the Greens, it is a threat to the LNP and the Coalition.

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