Offers succinct commentary on topical issues that cut across both rich and poor countries. Entails critical insights on poverty, inequality, health, macro-policies and many more
Americans are pessimistic about the future and foresee a nation in decline as as a Pew Research survey highlighted in 2023 (Figure 1). The American Psychological Association, in its 2024 survey, released only a few ago, reports that 77% of responds suffer from stress because of their bleak assessment of the nation’s future (Figure 2)
Figure 1: Majority of Americans foresee a bleak future….
Are these grim perceptions rooted in reality? Boosters of American capitalism, such as the ‘sponsored’ media, will beg to differ. They will claim that America remains – and will continue to remain – among the most powerful and richest nations in the world. Are the boosters of American capitalism correct or has the average American got it right? Let us briefly examine long-term trends in per capita income, poverty and inequality in USA as a way of offering a data-driven perspective on this contentious topic.
Per capita real disposable income has grown steadily since 1990 (Figure 3), but within this positive and broad trend there are some troubling signs. While per capita real disposable income recovered from the trough of the COVID-19 recession, living standards today (2024) are lower than a few years ago.
One feature of Figure 1 is worth highlighting. The US economy has suffered nine recessions since 1950 (note the shaded areas in the figure representing US recessions.) Every time a recession takes place, average living standards take a hit as job opportunities shrink and unemployment rises.
Figure 3: Rising per capita income, but is lower today (2024) than a few years ago
What about trends in poverty? These are shown in Figure 4. There have been periods of sharp rises in poverty followed by impressive declines. The 2020 COVID-19 recession saw a surge poverty followed by a decline. Yet, the poverty rate in 2022 is still higher than it was in 2000.
As is well known, the Achilles heel of US society is its high and rising levels of inequality, both in terms of income and wealth. These are shown in Figure 5 and 6. Perhaps these trends help to explain why 80% of Americans feel that the gap between the rich and the poor will widen.
Figure 5: Growing income inequality (as measured by the Gini index)
It seems that the average American knows deep down what ails American society. It appears that it is the Trump vs Harris campaign surrounding the imminent US Presidential election (November 5, 2024) that is disconnected from reality. There has been no meaningful national conversations led by the Presidential candidates on how to respond to the challenges of deep-rooted poverty and inequality in the United States of America.
The ultra-orthodox Jews (or Haredim) now account for 13.5 percent of the Israeli population, but in about 40 years, this is projected to increase to 31.3 percent if the exceptionally high fertility rates of Haredi females are maintained. Haredi Jews hardly mix with other Jews and have views and values that are incompatible with the secular and Zionist character of Israel. More importantly, Haredi men have rather low employment rates and the highest poverty rates. Most children of the Haredi community go to specially designated schools that shun the core curriculum of English, Maths and Science. Because of their growing size, Haredi parties exercise considerable political power which is likely to grow over time. This enables them to sustain the required budgetary support from the government that allows Haredi lifestyles to be sustained. Under a business-as-usual scenario, Israel could become a poorer, less productive economy, given that a large part of Israeli society will consist of Haredi men and women that will impose a major fiscal burden on the state. The political leadership might not be able to break out of the status quo if it remains addicted to ‘forever wars’ as a way of subverting the aspirations of Palestinian statehood and thus neglect the challenges posed by Israel’s demographic transformation.
Sheikh Hasina, the longest serving Prime Minister of Bangladesh, and the longest serving female Prime Minister in the world, could not defy the ‘iron law’ of history. Iron law? Yes, all political regimes have a finite time-span.
Hasina ruled Bangladesh with an iron fist. Her security forces – enabled by a pliant judiciary and media – engaged in brutal repression of opposition politicians (Bangladesh National Party and Jamaat in particular) and suppressed any significant attempt at dissent by civic activists, students, and others. Over a period of 15 years (2009-2024), the 76 years old veteran politician built a ‘deep state’ teeming with party loyalists (that is, those affiliated with the Awami League: AL). Her governance structure appeared to be a seemingly impregnable fortress that sustained Hasina’s hold on the body politic. A succession of brazenly rigged elections ensured that she would return to power again and again. Yet, a short-lived movement led by students toppled this fortress like a sandcastle on August 5, 2024. The armed forces on which Hasina relied for her ability to cling to power refused to offer their unconditional allegiance in the face of an unrelenting student movement. Hasina fled in disgrace to neighbouring India which offered her sanctuary, at least temporarily.
Initially, the protest movement targeted a contentious job reservation scheme in the public sector. This scheme disproportionately favoured the descendants of those who fought in the 1971 Bangladesh Liberation War. Such a scheme was in essence a pernicious means to induct loyalists into the bureaucracy.
Tragically, the youth-led uprising against the Hasina regime led to many hundreds of deaths of innocent students and civilians at the hands of security forces and government-supported vigilantes. Thousands were injured and many thousands were incarcerated. Students stood firm against such repression and successfully sought Hasina’s resignation once the army abandoned its support to the government.
In retrospect, the Hasina regime represents a cruel paradox. Political repression was juxtaposed with substantial economic and social gains. Growth was sustained and rapid leading to a doubling of real per capita income between 2009 and 2023 – see Figure 1. Poverty fell significantly, and life expectancy increased substantially – see Figures 2 and 3. A UN assessment noted that ‘the country is internationally recognized for its good progress on several gender indicators’. The garments industry and remittances consolidated their position as leading export earners. New industries emerged, most notably pharmaceuticals and shipbuilding. Large-scale infrastructure projects were completed that enhanced communications and connectivity.
On the other hand, such achievements were nullified by massive corruption, egregious levels of inequality, and environmental degradation. The fundamental failure of the Hasina regime is that it dented the legitimacy of durable economic and social gains by denying Bangladeshis basic rights and liberties, including the right to vote in free and fair elections.
Hasina was also seen as being beholden to India. This caused public resentment at India’s influence on Bangladesh’s national affairs. Her attempt at a balancing act by wooing China was insufficient to dispel the widely held notion that she was slavishly pro-Indian.
Now that Hasina is gone, what next? An interim government, consisting of seventeen members and headed by Nobel Laureate Mohammad Yunus, has been established. It has taken the historically unprecedented step of appointing two student leaders as part of the government with full ministerial rank.
It seems that an implicit rift has developed between the Army brass, the student leaders and professional politicians represented by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and Jamaat. The Army Chief and his enablers wanted to form an interim government that that did not include Yunus. The student leaders did not approve of such a move and offered their alternative configuration of an interim government headed by Yunus and one that is politically neutral. They envisage an interim government that will run for a substantial period to complete its tasks and then ensure the holding of free and fair elections. So far, neither the tenure of the interim government nor its terms reference have been made explicit.
For now, the student leaders have prevailed because they have enormous street power, but they – and the interim government that they helped create – face monumental challenges: restoring law and order, reforming the governance structure, restarting an economy that effectively became moribund during the massive disruptions caused by the student-led movement and holding free and fair elections. These challenges are occurring against a background of high expectations about a bright future.
The BNP-Jamaat alliance meanwhile is getting impatient. More importantly, they would like the interim government to hold elections within three months – a time-frame that is unlikely to be accepted by the student leaders. The silent rift among the key actors will then become explicit.
One can understand why the BNP-Jamaat is so impatient. They have an electoral opportunity that they did not believe would ever occur. Their arch nemesis AL is thoroughly vanquished, at least for now. The BNP-Jamaat forces can romp home electorally. What will the student leaders do then?
There is growing realization that the real battle for the future of a new, inclusive Bangladesh has just started. The progressive forces unleashed by the youth-led uprising need to evolve into a new party that can prevail electorally over the old guard represented by professional politicians.
The two dominant parties (BNP and AL), backed by minor allies, have in the past accounted for more than 80 percent of votes cast in relatively free and fair elections (such as 2001). Sadly, they harbour a ‘legacy of blood’ that has tainted Bangladesh ever since its birth in 1971. The two parties treat each other as mortal enemies and display a deeply ingrained culture of revenge politics. This inhibits a robust and sustained commitment to peaceful transfer of power. Professional politicians, regardless of their affiliations, come from a toxic gene pool representing a mix of ideologues, opportunists, crooks and criminals. Whether a genuinely third political force can emerge from the youth-led movement remains an open question.
Israel started its life as an independent nation by engaging in ethnic cleansing or ‘nakba’ as the Palestinians call it. It was forcefully done, but in the Israeli imagination, it became a choice-driven process. As John Mearsheimer, the redoubtable politician of Jewish heritage noted recently, ‘voluntary’ ethnic cleansing is the only ‘final solution’ – a land for Jews and Jews only, where there is no trace of indigenous Palestinians as they will have all moved to other neighbouring Arab countries. Hence, there is no need to engage in dangerous conversations on a ‘binational ‘ state of Israel-Palestine or two states of Israel and Palestine embodying peaceful co-existence.
The prized goal of voluntary ethnic cleansing has not happened. What has emerged is a dystopian world in which a highly militarized, ethno-nationalist, settler-colonial state brutally subjugates Palestinians while pining for the pipe dream of peaceful ethnic cleansing. The latest genocidal war on Gazans by Israel – admittedly in retaliation against the October 7 attacks by Hamas – is the latest example of this dystopian world that captures the bitter reality of a nation that has forsaken its future for ‘forever wars’ against a weak and largely defenceless enemy that it finds difficult to vanquish. It is Hamas today, but it could morph into another entity tomorrow.
As the Washington Post’s Ishaan Tharoor has emphasized, Israel is facing growing global isolation and is boxed into a corner. The United States continues to be Israel’s cheerleader (what ‘genocide’? there are no ‘red lines’), but several Western allies that meekly followed ‘follow-the-leader’ in the past are quietly eschewing this shameful strategy. Many EU nations, and dependable allies like Australia, have voted in favour of UN resolutions seeking a long-term ceasefire to stop the wanton bloodshed in Gaza. Many of these very countries have voted in favour of a UN resolution to grant Palestine full UN membership. Ireland, Norway and Spain have fully recognized the Palestinian state a few days ago.
“Toddlers go up in flames, and our Israeli public celebrates…that’s what our hell looks like…Israel has such a strong desire for revenge that it is slowly sinking into a dark abyss, hand in hand with the ruins of Gaza”.
Reflections on development and governance 