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Narendra Modi, poised to become Prime Minister of India after the conclusion of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, is probably the most successful politician of contemporary India. He strode like a colossus, first as Chief Minister of Gujarat (13 years), and subsequently as Prime Minister of India (10 years). This is a record that is unlikely to be broken. He would love to surpass the late Jawaharlal Nehru’s distinction as India’s longest-serving Prime Minister, but will he?
There is an eternal truth in politics. Successful politicians typically get consumed by hubris which paves the way for their inevitable downfall. In Modi’s case, hubris has been compounded by notorious communal proclivities as well as a strong authoritarian streak. The party that he leads, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), is conspicuous for its Hindutvya ideology that has marginalized and victimized Muslims and other minorities. What Modi has done is add to the Hindutvya ideology a potent mix of expanding welfare payments to the poor and aggressive investment in infrastructure. This has enabled Modi to take the BJP to dizzying heights of electoral victories that gave the party sizeable majorities in 2014 and 2019.
It is difficult to comprehend that in 1984 the BJP under Advani had only two seats in the Lok Sabha. By 2014, the size of the BJP under Modi swelled to 303 seats. An overconfident Modi simply ignored its allies as it could rely on its own majority. At the same time, a despondent Opposition which was led by Congress simply capitulated under the BJP electoral juggernaut.
Modi took advantage of these circumstances and held the governing institutions as of India as well as his own party under his arrogant grip. India soon found itself being classified as an ‘electoral autocracy’ ruled by someone who regarded himself as a divine avatar destined to shape the destiny of India.
The 2024 elections disrupted the status quo and humbled Modi. The BJP fell well short of its majority, its worst result since 2009. How will Modi cope now? Is he going to govern the way he did in the past or will he simply fade away and become another ordinary politician who came to power after a ‘Pyrrhic’ victory?
There are several reasons why one might witness the decline of Modi. First, he must contend with the preferences and machinations of capricious allies to run a coalition government. This is the kind of politics that Modi is simply not used to. He might react by asserting his authoritarian persona, but this might make his fragile hold on power even more fragile. Second, he must contend with a rejuvenated Opposition led by Rahul Gandhi and his allies. Third, there is the long-term issue of whether there are diminishing returns to exploiting the poisonous majoritarianism of Hindutvya as an electoral strategy. The fact that the BJP in the 2024 elections has shed seats heavily in the Hindu heartland of Uttar Pradesh is an indication of that trend. It is ironic that the incumbent BJP candidate lost his seat even in Ayodhya where the grand Ram Mandir that was built on the ruins of a mosque stands.
Reinforcing the limits of Hindutvya is the fact that India faces multiple challenges that the BJP has been unable to resolve: crony capitalism, conspicuously high inequality, lack of equitable access to health care and education, lack of good jobs, especially for young people, and the perils of climate change. As Modi cannot hide from confronting these challenges by posing as a divine entity, ambitious power-seekers within the BJP itself might rise to the fore and force him to move away from his role as a party leader. After all he will soon be 75 years old, and he might be asked to retire in the same way that Advani and other party elders did.
Reflections on development and governance 